Tag: Pandemic

Overcompensation of Income Losses: A Major Flaw in Canada’s Pandemic Response

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The federal government has overcompensated Canadians for their lockdown-related income losses. The amount of money involved is substantial. Although overcompensation does not seem to have been a policy objective at the outset, it has been embraced. This expensive flaw in Canada’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic compromises fairness and limits options for using fiscal policy to strengthen the recovery. Read this articleOvercompensation of Income Losses: A Major Flaw in Canada’s Pandemic Response→

News about CEWS

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Federal emergency wage subsidies are poorly targeted, resulting in a fiscal cost of about $14,500 for each person-month of employment saved through the program, or $188,000 per job year. Reductions in subsidy rates which began in September had only small impacts on employment, while reducing the fiscal cost of the program substantially. More recently, the government has backed away from those reforms, freezing subsidy rates and extending the program in 2021. The decision to back away from the September reforms was a mistake and a gradual phaseout of subsidies should start again now. Read this articleNews about CEWS→

Fiscal Anchors for Canada’s Post-COVID Economy

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As the Trudeau government prepares its fall fiscal update after months of record spending to address the health and economic crisis of the COVID-19 pandemic, recent progress toward a vaccine should sufficiently mitigate uncertainty to enable a fiscal plan that shows Canadians how Ottawa will achieve its policy goals while maintaining fiscal discipline. Read this articleFiscal Anchors for Canada’s Post-COVID Economy→

The Great Barrington Proposal Won’t Save the Economy

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Recently, a proposal to end essentially all pandemic-related restrictions on the activities of young and healthy people has attracted significant attention and criticism. This commentary presents data which shed light on the question of whether (public health effects set entirely aside) implementing this type of proposal could actually meaningfully boost Canada’s economic performance. It shows that because young people earn only a small overall share of total income in the economy, there are unlikely to be substantial benefits for the overall economy from loosening or eliminating the restrictions on younger Canadians. Read this articleThe Great Barrington Proposal Won’t Save the Economy→

Is Canada’s Federal Debt a Cause for Concern?

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Canada’s federal deficit is currently forecasted to be $343 billion in fiscal year 2020-21, or more than 15% of gross domestic product (GDP). Not surprisingly, this deficit and the associated accumulation of debt is attributable to the government’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Federal budget deficits are, however, expected to continue well beyond 2020. This commentary discusses how we should think about the federal government’s debt, and what perspective we should take that may be different from how we are used to thinking about other kinds of debt. Read this articleIs Canada’s Federal Debt a Cause for Concern?→

The Canada Recovery Benefit: Employment Insurance or Basic Income Guarantee?

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The Canada Recovery Benefit (CRB) is a bold step in the delivery of pandemic-related aid to self-employed and gig workers, who are poorly served by Employment Insurance. Advocates of reform to Canada’s income transfer system will find much to like about the CRB, and some may wish to make the program, or something like it, a permanent feature of Canada’s social safety net. However, there are likely to be substantial enforcement and implementation issues with the program, as well as problems around fairness. As currently designed, the CRB is not a good template for a guaranteed basic income for Canada. Read this articleThe Canada Recovery Benefit: Employment Insurance or Basic Income Guarantee?→

The Challenge of Designing Income Support Programs for the Self-Employed

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The Canada Recovery Benefit may become an important source of support for self-employed individuals during the COVID-19 pandemic, particularly among those without employees. One important obstacle to the policy’s success is that the self-employed are a heterogeneous group that is not easily characterized, with workflows that do not fit neatly into weekly benefit periods. Efforts to develop well-targeted post-pandemic support for the self-employed require better data to understand their workflows, incomes, and behavioural responses to adjustments in policy parameters. Read this articleThe Challenge of Designing Income Support Programs for the Self-Employed→

Boos for CEWS

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Federal emergency wage subsidies are poorly targeted, resulting in a fiscal cost of $25,000 or more for each person-month of employment saved through the program so far. Recent reforms attempt to target subsidies better to reduce fiscal costs, but the new approach creates disincentives for business growth that put the economic recovery at risk. The program should be wound down at the end of the year, and future programs should be designed to direct payments to incremental jobs saved or created by the policy. Read this articleBoos for CEWS→

Government Debt Sustainability in Canada’s Post-COVID Future

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In response to COVID-19, and the public health response to it, Canada’s federal and provincial governments have accumulated debt in amounts not seen since World War 2. General government debt (federal plus provincial) is expected to exceed 100% of GDP — according to the latest forecast from the IMF … Read this articleGovernment Debt Sustainability in Canada’s Post-COVID Future→