Debt sustainability analysis projects government revenues and expenditures forward to explore whether debt to GDP ratios grow without bound. Fiscal gap analysis is a particular tool to quantify what fiscal adjustment, if any, is necessary to ensure sustainability of public finances. These gaps represent the required change in primary balances (as a share of GDP) to maintain net debt to GDP ratios over a desired time horizon. This tool allows you to select various scenarios governing fundamental economic, fiscal, and demographic developments as well as selected policy reforms and see the resulting effect on fiscal gaps. For more information, see Trevor Tombe, “Provincial Debt Sustainability in Canada: Demographics, Federal Transfers, and COVID-19,” (2020) Canadian Tax Journal 68:4, 1083-1122.
Notes: Federal borrowing rates are always 1 percentage points lower than provincial. All fiscal gap statistics are reported as shares of GDP and represent the fiscal adjustment required to achieve the 2019 net debt ratio by the end of the selected time horizon. December 2020 update: natural resource revenues projected using CER Energy Future 2020; post-COVID stimulus based on the Fall Economic Statement 2020; population post-2043 are my own projections based on Statistics Canada’s, which end in 2043 for provinces.