Commentary

Ontario’s Public Finances: Diagnosis and Prescription

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Ontario recently published its 2020 budget, and it contained a lot of bad news. The cash deficit will be around $100 billion over the next three years. This commentary examines options for bringing the province back to sustainability by either reducing spending, raising taxes, or some combination of both. The authors discuss the economic and political consequences of each of the available options, and shows that there are no easy answers for the Ford government. Read this articleOntario’s Public Finances: Diagnosis and Prescription→

The Taxation of Capital Income in Canada Part I: Taxes on Dividends and Capital Gains

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This commentary examines the economic effects of the taxation of dividends and capital gains collected via the personal income tax, applied to the supply side of the capital market. I show that taxable dividends and capital gains are highly concentrated at the top of the income distribution, much more so than is labour income. I also argue that, while the evidence is somewhat inconclusive, aggregate savings is relatively insensitive to changes in after-tax returns. This is the first commentary in a three-part series considering reforms to Canada’s approach to taxing capital income. Read this articleThe Taxation of Capital Income in Canada Part I: Taxes on Dividends and Capital Gains→

The Great Barrington Proposal Won’t Save the Economy

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Recently, a proposal to end essentially all pandemic-related restrictions on the activities of young and healthy people has attracted significant attention and criticism. This commentary presents data which shed light on the question of whether (public health effects set entirely aside) implementing this type of proposal could actually meaningfully boost Canada’s economic performance. It shows that because young people earn only a small overall share of total income in the economy, there are unlikely to be substantial benefits for the overall economy from loosening or eliminating the restrictions on younger Canadians. Read this articleThe Great Barrington Proposal Won’t Save the Economy→

Is Canada’s Federal Debt a Cause for Concern?

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Canada’s federal deficit is currently forecasted to be $343 billion in fiscal year 2020-21, or more than 15% of gross domestic product (GDP). Not surprisingly, this deficit and the associated accumulation of debt is attributable to the government’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Federal budget deficits are, however, expected to continue well beyond 2020. This commentary discusses how we should think about the federal government’s debt, and what perspective we should take that may be different from how we are used to thinking about other kinds of debt. Read this articleIs Canada’s Federal Debt a Cause for Concern?→

The Canada Recovery Benefit: Employment Insurance or Basic Income Guarantee?

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The Canada Recovery Benefit (CRB) is a bold step in the delivery of pandemic-related aid to self-employed and gig workers, who are poorly served by Employment Insurance. Advocates of reform to Canada’s income transfer system will find much to like about the CRB, and some may wish to make the program, or something like it, a permanent feature of Canada’s social safety net. However, there are likely to be substantial enforcement and implementation issues with the program, as well as problems around fairness. As currently designed, the CRB is not a good template for a guaranteed basic income for Canada. Read this articleThe Canada Recovery Benefit: Employment Insurance or Basic Income Guarantee?→

The Challenge of Designing Income Support Programs for the Self-Employed

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The Canada Recovery Benefit may become an important source of support for self-employed individuals during the COVID-19 pandemic, particularly among those without employees. One important obstacle to the policy’s success is that the self-employed are a heterogeneous group that is not easily characterized, with workflows that do not fit neatly into weekly benefit periods. Efforts to develop well-targeted post-pandemic support for the self-employed require better data to understand their workflows, incomes, and behavioural responses to adjustments in policy parameters. Read this articleThe Challenge of Designing Income Support Programs for the Self-Employed→

Boos for CEWS

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Federal emergency wage subsidies are poorly targeted, resulting in a fiscal cost of $25,000 or more for each person-month of employment saved through the program so far. Recent reforms attempt to target subsidies better to reduce fiscal costs, but the new approach creates disincentives for business growth that put the economic recovery at risk. The program should be wound down at the end of the year, and future programs should be designed to direct payments to incremental jobs saved or created by the policy. Read this articleBoos for CEWS→

Government Debt Sustainability in Canada’s Post-COVID Future

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In response to COVID-19, and the public health response to it, Canada’s federal and provincial governments have accumulated debt in amounts not seen since World War 2. General government debt (federal plus provincial) is expected to exceed 100% of GDP — according to the latest forecast from the IMF … Read this articleGovernment Debt Sustainability in Canada’s Post-COVID Future→

Canada Needs a New Fiscal Anchor. (Québec Has One to Offer.)

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The Federal government is in need of a new fiscal anchor. If there is one thing the current crisis has revealed on the fiscal policy front, it is that the debt-to-GDP ratio alone cannot adequately play that role. As a result, additional fiscal rules that allow potentially large deficits during recessions while ultimately balancing budgets over the cycle will be needed to keep the country’s finances on a sustainable path. Read this articleCanada Needs a New Fiscal Anchor. (Québec Has One to Offer.)→