Budget 2026 projects federal debt falling from about 40% of GDP today to 18.6% by 2060–61. The Finances of the Nation (FoN) debt sustainability simulator projects federal net debt near 48% of GDP in 2060. What’s behind the large difference in outlooks for federal finances? Read this articleWhy Budget 2026’s long-run debt path differs from ours
A new Finances of the Nation tool shows marginal effective tax rates on business investment in Canada, by province and industry, from 1980 to today. Read this articleExploring marginal effective tax rates in Canada
Canada’s federal finances remain on stable footing, but the long-term trajectory depends on key policy choices. Using Budget 2025 projections and the Finances of the Nation Debt Sustainability Simulator, this piece shows how to explore where the debt-to-GDP ratio may be headed. Read this articleUnderstanding Canada’s Longer-Term Fiscal Outlook
We’re pleased to announce that we have uploaded new series on federal fiscal balances, aggregate federal transfers, and the national balance sheet for Canada, ready for use and analysis on the Finances of the Nation website. Read this articleData Updates on Finances of the Nation
Explore the latest public finance and economic data and share your insights through the Finances of the Nation Student Infographic Competition! The theme for this year’s infographic competition is: Fiscal Pressures and Affordability Challenges. Read this articleAnnouncing the 2024/25 Student Infographic Competition
A new tool from Finances of the Nation helps make sense of the long-term fiscal future of Canada’s federal government. Under several reasonable scenarios, the government’s finances are sound. But under others, concerns around long-run sustainability may mount. Read this articleA new tool to understand Canada’s fiscal sustainability
Canada’s equalization program is one of the most important federal transfers — and one of the most misunderstood. A new tool from Finances of the Nation opens the black box and understand how it works, how it doesn’t, and what the future might hold. Read this articleA New Tool to Understand Equalization Payments in Canada
This commentary examines recent differences in growth rates and interest rates at the federal and provincial levels in order to estimate the future paths of public-sector debts. The results provide a novel perspective on a recurring theme in Canada’s debt sustainability debates—namely, that Ottawa is in a better position than most provinces to stabilize the debt-to-GDP ratio. Read this articleFiscal Risks and Government Debt in Canada: The Implications of Interest Rate and Growth Rate Volatility
In both Canada and the United States, net fiscal transfers across jurisdictions are largely the result of differences in economic strength and demographics, not unequal treatment by the federal government.
Read this articleWho “Pays” and Who “Receives” in Confederation?
In response to COVID-19, and the public health response to it, Canada’s federal and provincial governments have accumulated debt in amounts not seen since World War 2. General government debt (federal plus provincial) is expected to exceed 100% of GDP — according to the latest forecast from the IMF … Read this articleGovernment Debt Sustainability in Canada’s Post-COVID Future
