Debt Sustainability Simulator

Debt sustainability analysis projects government revenues and expenditures forward to explore whether debt to GDP ratios grow without bound. Fiscal gap analysis is a particular tool to quantify what fiscal adjustment, if any, is necessary to ensure sustainability of public finances. These gaps represent the required change in primary balances (as a share of GDP) to maintain net debt to GDP ratios over a desired time horizon. This tool allows you to select various scenarios governing fundamental economic, fiscal, and demographic developments as well as selected policy reforms and see the resulting effect on fiscal gaps. For more information, see Trevor Tombe, “Provincial Debt Sustainability in Canada: Demographics, Federal Transfers, and COVID-19,” (2020) Canadian Tax Journal 68:4, 1083-1122.